Asteroid Apophis Has One in 100,000 Chance of Hitting Earth, Expert Estimates

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Asteroid Apophis Has One in 100,000 Chance of Hitting Earth, Expert Estimates

Asteroid Apophis Has One in 100,000 Chance of Hitting Earth, Expert Estimates:

Goldstone radar images of asteroid Apophis. Image credit: JPL

The huge nearly 400-meter wide asteroid Apophis is still on a list of hazardous near-Earth objects (NEOs), regarded as a potential threat to our planet. However, new calculations made by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) scientist, show that Apophis’ odds of Earth impact are lower than previously estimated.

“We cannot yet exclude the possibility that it could impact our planet, but we can calculate that the chance of Earth impact is only a 1-in-100-thousand over the next century, which of course is extremely small,” Paul Chodas, Manager of JPL’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies told Astrowatch.net.

Discovered in 2004, asteroid Apophis is slated to fly by our planet on April 13, 2029. Initial observations of this space rock indicated that it has one in 36 chance of hitting the Earth on that day, but additional monitoring of Apophis completely ruled out this possibility.

However, Alberto Cellino of the Observatory of Turin in Italy told Astrowatch.net in June, that although the potential impact in 2029 was excluded, we cannot rule out such event in more distant future. Given the fact that NEO orbits are chaotic, what is not dangerous today can become a candidate impactor in the future.

That is why astronomers, including Chodas, underline the importance of detailed observations of Apophis and its constant monitoring, which could confirm that this asteroid poses no danger to us.

“Apophis is certainly a hazardous asteroid, and for that reason it has been tracked extensively, and so we know its orbit very accurately. In all likelihood further tracking measurements will eliminate even that possibility (one in 100,000), Chodas noted.

Astronomers estimate that on April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass by the Earth at a distance of no closer than 18,300 miles (29,470 kilometers). Next close approach of this asteroid is expected to take place in April 2036 when it will miss our planet at a much larger distance of approximately 30.5 million miles (49 million kilometers).

Currently, there are 1,803 potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) detected to date. PHAs are space rocks larger than approximately 100 meters that can come closer to Earth than 4.65 million miles (7.5 million kilometers). However, none of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet.

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The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is the United States government agency responsible for the civilian space program as well as aeronautics and aerospace research. President Dwight D. Eisenhower established the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in 1958 with a distinctly civilian (rather than military) orientation encouraging peaceful applications in space science. The National Aeronautics and Space Act was passed on July 29, 1958, disestablishing NASA's predecessor, the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA). The new agency became operational on October 1, 1958.

UFO SIGHTINGS PHOTO PHOTOGRAPHY

The Oxford English Dictionary defines a UFO as "An unidentified flying object; a 'flying saucer'." The first published book to use the word was authored by Donald E. Keyhoe. The acronym "UFO" was coined by Captain Edward J. Ruppelt, who headed Project Blue Book, then the USAF's official investigation of UFOs. He wrote, "Obviously the term 'flying saucer' is misleading when applied to objects of every conceivable shape and performance. For this reason the military prefers the more general, if less colorful, name: unidentified flying objects. UFO (pronounced Yoo-foe) for short." Other phrases that were used officially and that predate the UFO acronym include "flying flapjack", "flying disc", "unexplained flying discs", "unidentifiable object", and "flying saucer". The phrase "flying saucer" had gained widespread attention after the summer of 1947. On June 24, a civilian pilot named Kenneth Arnold reported seeing nine objects flying in formation near Mount Rainier. Arnold timed the sighting and estimated the speed of discs to be over 1,200 mph (1,931 km/h). At the time, he described the objects' shape as being somewhat disc-like or saucer-like, leading to newspaper accounts of "flying saucers" and "flying discs". In popular usage the term UFO came to be used to refer to claims of alien spacecraft. and because of the public and media ridicule associated with the topic, some investigators prefer to use such terms as unidentified aerial phenomenon (or UAP) or anomalous phenomena, as in the title of the National Aviation Reporting Center on Anomalous Phenomena (NARCAP).

UFO PHOTO PHOTOGRAPHY

UFO - Unidentified Flying Object An unidentified flying object, or UFO, in its most general definition, is any apparent anomaly in the sky that is not identifiable as a known object or phenomenon. Culturally, UFOs are associated with claims of visitation by extraterrestrial life or government-related conspiracy theories, and have become popular subjects in fiction. While UFOs are often later identified, sometimes identification may not be possible owing to the usually low quality of evidence related to UFO sightings (generally anecdotal evidence and eyewitness accounts). Stories of fantastical celestial apparitions have been told since antiquity, but the term "UFO" (or "UFOB") was officially created in 1953 by the United States Air Force (USAF) to serve as a catch-all for all such reports. In its initial definition, the USAF stated that a "UFOB" was "any airborne object which by performance, aerodynamic characteristics, or unusual features, does not conform to any presently known aircraft or missile type, or which cannot be positively identified as a familiar object." Accordingly, the term was initially restricted to that fraction of cases which remained unidentified after investigation, as the USAF was interested in potential national security reasons and/or "technical aspects" (see Air Force Regulation 200-2). During the late 1940s and through the 1950s, UFOs were often referred to popularly as "flying saucers" or "flying discs". The term UFO became more widespread during the 1950s, at first in technical literature, but later in popular use. UFOs garnered considerable interest during the Cold War, an era associated with a heightened concern for national security. Various studies have concluded that the phenomenon does not represent a threat to national security nor does it contain anything worthy of scientific pursuit (e.g., 1951 Flying Saucer Working Party, 1953 CIA Robertson Panel, USAF Project Blue Book, Condon Committee).

Photos of Nature | Nature Photography What is The Universe

Photos of Nature | Nature Photography What is The Universe

Tuesday, August 15, 2017