Will Aurora Strike Tonight? Here’s What to Expect

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Will Aurora Strike Tonight? Here’s What to Expect

Will Aurora Strike Tonight? Here’s What to Expect:

A bright arc and pink-topped rays stipple the northern sky and cross the Bowl of the Big Dipper last night around 11:30 p.m. CDT over Caribou Lake north of Duluth, Minn. Credit: Guy Sander

A bright arc and pink-topped rays stipple the northern sky and light up the Bowl of the Big Dipper last night around 11:30 p.m. CDT over Caribou Lake north of Duluth, Minn. Credit: Guy Sander

Auroras showed up as forecast last night beginning around nightfall and lasting until about 1 a.m. CDT this morning. Then the action stopped. At peak, the Kp index dinged the bell at “5” (minor geogmagnetic storm) for about 6 hours as the incoming shock from the arrival of the solar blast rattled Earth’s magnetosphere. It wasn’t a particularly bright aurora and had to compete with moonlight, so many of you may not have seen it. You needn’t worry. A much stronger G3 geomagnetic storm from the second Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) remains in the forecast for tonight.

Plot showing the Kp index of magnetic activity high in the Earth’s magnetic domain called the magnetosphere. The two red bars show the Kp at ‘5’ last night and early this morning (dotted line represents 0 UT or 7 p.m. CDT). Inset is the current detailed forecast in Universal Time (Greenwich Time) in 3-hour increments. Credit: NOAA

Activity should begin right at nightfall and peak between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m. Central Daylight Time. The best place to observe the show is from a location well away from city lights with a good view of the northern sky. Auroras are notoriously fickle, but if the NOAA space forecasting crew is on the money, flickering lights should be visible as far south as Illinois and Kansas. The storm also has the potential to heat and expand the outer limits of Earth’s atmosphere enough to cause additional drag on low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites. High-frequency radio transmissions like shortwave radio may be reduced to static particularly on paths crossing through the polar regions.

Earth’s magnetic bubble, generated by motions within its iron-nickel core and shaped by the solar wind, is called the magnetosphere. It extends some 40,000 miles forward of the planet and more than 3.9 million miles in the tailward direction. Most of the time it sheds particle blasts from the sun called coronal mass ejections, but occasionally one makes it past our defenses and we get an auroral treat. Credit: NASA

If you study the inset box in the illustration above, you can see that from 21-00UT (4 -7 p.m. Central time) the index jumps quickly form “3” to “6” as the blast from that second, stronger X-class flare (September 10) slams into our magnetosphere. Assuming the magnetic field it carries points southward, it should link into our planet’s northward-pointing field and wreak beautiful havoc. A G2 storm continues through 10 p.m. and then elevates to Kp 7 or G3 storm between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m. before subsiding slightly in the wee hours before dawn. The Kp index measures how disturbed Earth’s magnetic field is on a 9-point scale and is compiled every 3 hours by a network of magnetic observatories on the planet.

A lovely rayed arc reflected in Caribou Lake north of Duluth, Minn. on September 11, 2014. Credit: Guy Sander

A lovely rayed arc reflected in Caribou Lake north of Duluth, Minn. on September 11, 2014. Tonight the moon rises around 9:30 p.m. The lower in the sky it is, the brighter the aurora will appear. Hopefully tonight’s lights will outdo what the moon can dish out. Credit: Guy Sander

All the numbers are lined up. Now, will the weather and solar wind cooperate? Stop back this evening as I’ll be updating with news as the storm happens.

The auroral oval around 2:30 p.m. CDT this afternoon September 12 shows a southward expansion into the Scandinavian countries. Click for current map. Credit: NOAA

The auroral oval around 2:30 p.m. CDT this afternoon September 12 shows a southward expansion into the Scandinavian countries and Russia and Iceland. Where the sky is dark, auroras are typically seen anywhere under or along the edge of the oval. Click for current map. Credit: NOAA

Tagged as:
aurora,
auroral oval,
Kp index,
magnetosphere,
northern lights

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NASA Photos Photography

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is the United States government agency responsible for the civilian space program as well as aeronautics and aerospace research. President Dwight D. Eisenhower established the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in 1958 with a distinctly civilian (rather than military) orientation encouraging peaceful applications in space science. The National Aeronautics and Space Act was passed on July 29, 1958, disestablishing NASA's predecessor, the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA). The new agency became operational on October 1, 1958.

UFO SIGHTINGS PHOTO PHOTOGRAPHY

The Oxford English Dictionary defines a UFO as "An unidentified flying object; a 'flying saucer'." The first published book to use the word was authored by Donald E. Keyhoe. The acronym "UFO" was coined by Captain Edward J. Ruppelt, who headed Project Blue Book, then the USAF's official investigation of UFOs. He wrote, "Obviously the term 'flying saucer' is misleading when applied to objects of every conceivable shape and performance. For this reason the military prefers the more general, if less colorful, name: unidentified flying objects. UFO (pronounced Yoo-foe) for short." Other phrases that were used officially and that predate the UFO acronym include "flying flapjack", "flying disc", "unexplained flying discs", "unidentifiable object", and "flying saucer". The phrase "flying saucer" had gained widespread attention after the summer of 1947. On June 24, a civilian pilot named Kenneth Arnold reported seeing nine objects flying in formation near Mount Rainier. Arnold timed the sighting and estimated the speed of discs to be over 1,200 mph (1,931 km/h). At the time, he described the objects' shape as being somewhat disc-like or saucer-like, leading to newspaper accounts of "flying saucers" and "flying discs". In popular usage the term UFO came to be used to refer to claims of alien spacecraft. and because of the public and media ridicule associated with the topic, some investigators prefer to use such terms as unidentified aerial phenomenon (or UAP) or anomalous phenomena, as in the title of the National Aviation Reporting Center on Anomalous Phenomena (NARCAP).

UFO PHOTO PHOTOGRAPHY

UFO - Unidentified Flying Object An unidentified flying object, or UFO, in its most general definition, is any apparent anomaly in the sky that is not identifiable as a known object or phenomenon. Culturally, UFOs are associated with claims of visitation by extraterrestrial life or government-related conspiracy theories, and have become popular subjects in fiction. While UFOs are often later identified, sometimes identification may not be possible owing to the usually low quality of evidence related to UFO sightings (generally anecdotal evidence and eyewitness accounts). Stories of fantastical celestial apparitions have been told since antiquity, but the term "UFO" (or "UFOB") was officially created in 1953 by the United States Air Force (USAF) to serve as a catch-all for all such reports. In its initial definition, the USAF stated that a "UFOB" was "any airborne object which by performance, aerodynamic characteristics, or unusual features, does not conform to any presently known aircraft or missile type, or which cannot be positively identified as a familiar object." Accordingly, the term was initially restricted to that fraction of cases which remained unidentified after investigation, as the USAF was interested in potential national security reasons and/or "technical aspects" (see Air Force Regulation 200-2). During the late 1940s and through the 1950s, UFOs were often referred to popularly as "flying saucers" or "flying discs". The term UFO became more widespread during the 1950s, at first in technical literature, but later in popular use. UFOs garnered considerable interest during the Cold War, an era associated with a heightened concern for national security. Various studies have concluded that the phenomenon does not represent a threat to national security nor does it contain anything worthy of scientific pursuit (e.g., 1951 Flying Saucer Working Party, 1953 CIA Robertson Panel, USAF Project Blue Book, Condon Committee).

Photos of Nature | Nature Photography What is The Universe

Photos of Nature | Nature Photography What is The Universe

Saturday, September 13, 2014