Monday, September 11, 2017

Exoplanet-Hunters Detect Two New “Warm Jupiters”

Exoplanet-Hunters Detect Two New “Warm Jupiters”:

The study of extra-solar planets has turned up some rather interesting candidates in the past few years. As of August 1st, 2017, a total of 3,639 exoplanets have been discovered in 2,729 planetary systems and 612 multiple planetary systems. Many of these discoveries have challenged conventional thinking about planets, especially where their sizes and distances from their suns are concerned.

According to a study by an international team of astronomers, the latest exoplanet discoveries are in keeping with this trend. Known as EPIC 211418729b and EPIC 211442297b, these two gas giants orbit stars that are located about 1569 and 1360 light-years from Earth (respectively) and are similar in size to Jupiter. Combined with their relatively close orbit to their stars, the team has designated them as “Warm Jupiters”.

The study, titled “EPIC 211418729b and EPIC 211442297b: Two Transiting Warm Jupiters“, recently appeared online. Led by Avi Shporer – a postdoctoral scholar with the Geological and Planetary Sciences (GPS) division at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) – the team relied on data from the Kepler and K2 missions, and follow-up observations with multiple ground-based telescopes, to determine the sizes, masses and orbits of these planets.





Simulation of the turbulent atmosphere of a hot, gaseous planet, based on data from NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MIT/Principia College
As they indicate in their study, the two planets were initially identified as transiting planet candidates by the K2 mission. In other words, they were initially detected through the transit method, where astronomers measure dips in a star brightness to confirm that a planet is passing between the observer and the star. These observations took place during K2‘s Campaign 5 observations, which took place between April 27th and July 10th, 2015.

The team then conducted follow-up observations using the Keck II telescope (located at the W.M. Keck Observatory in Hawaii) and the Gemini North Telescope (at the Gemini Observatory, also in Hawaii). These observations, conducted from January 2016 to May 2017, were then combined with spectral data and radial velocity measurements from the High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer (HIRES) the on the Keck I telescope.

Finally, they added photometric data from the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile, the South African Astronomical Observatory (SAAO), and the Siding Spring Observatory (SSO) in Australia. These follow-up observations confirmed the presence of these two exoplanets. As they wrote in the study:

“We have discovered two transiting warm Jupiter exoplanets initially identified as transiting candidates in K2 photometryBoth planets are among the longest period transiting gas giant planets with a measured mass, and they are orbiting relatively old host stars. Both planets are not inflated as their radii are consistent with theoretical expectations.”




The transit light curve of EPIC 211418729b. Credit: Shporer (et al.)
From their observations, the team was also able to produce estimates on the planets respective sizes, masses and orbital periods. Whereas EPIC 211418729 b measures 0.942 Jupiter radii, has approximately 1.85 Jupiter masses and orbital period of 11.4 days, EPIC 211442297 b measures 1.115 Jupiter radii, has approximately 0.84 Jupiter masses and an orbital period of 20.3 days.

Based on their estimates, these planets experience surface temperatures of up to 719 K (445.85 °C; 834.5 °F) and 682 K (408.85°C; 768 °F), respectively. As such, they classified these planets as “Warm Jupiters”, since they fall short of what is considered typical for “Hot Jupiters” – which have exotic atmosphere’s that experience temperatures as high as several thousand kelvin.

The researchers noted that based on their orbital periods, these two planets have some of the longest orbital periods of any transiting gas giant (i.e. those that have been detected using the transit method) detected to date. Or as they state in their study:

“Both EPIC 211418729b and EPIC 211442297b are among the longest period transiting gas giant planets with a measured mass. In fact, according to the NASA Exoplanet Archive (Akeson et al. 2013) EPIC 211442297b is currently the longest period K2 transiting exoplanet with a well constrained mass.”




Artist’s conception of a “Hot Jupiter” orbiting close to its star. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/T. Pyle (SSC)
Another interesting observation was the fact that neither of these exoplanets were inflated, which is something they did not anticipate. In the case of Hot Jupiters, the atmospheres undergo expansion as a result of the amount of solar irradiation they receive, resulting in what the team refers to as a “radius-irradiation correlation” in their paper. In other words, Hot Jupiters are massive, but are also known to have low densities compared to cooler gas giants.

Instead, the team found that both EPIC 211418729b and EPIC 211442297b had radii that were consistent with what theoretical models predict for gas giants of their mass. Their results also led them to make some tentative conclusions about the planets’ structures and compositions. As they wrote:

“Both planets are not inflated compared to theoretical expectations, unlike many other planets in the diagram. Their positions are close to or consistent with theoretical expectations for a planet with little to no rocky core, for EPIC 211442297b, and a planet with a significant rocky core for EPIC 211418729b.”
These results suggest that solar irradiation does not play a significant role in determining the radius of Warm Jupiters. It also raises some interesting questions about the correlation between radii and irradiation with other gas giants. In the future, EPIC 211418729b and EPIC 211442297b will be targets of future K2 observations during the mission’s Campaign 18 – which will run from May to August 2018.

These observations are sure to offer some additional insight into these planets and the mysteries this study has raised. Future surveys of transiting exoplanets – conducting by next-generation instruments like the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellites (TESS) – and direct-imaging surveys conducted by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) are sure to reveal even more about distant, exotic exoplanets.

Further Reading: arXiv

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Breakthrough Detects Repeating Fast Radio Bursts Coming from Distant Galaxy

Breakthrough Detects Repeating Fast Radio Bursts Coming from Distant Galaxy:

In July of 2015, Russian billionaire Yuri Milner announced the creation of Breakthrough Listen, a decade-long project that would conduct the largest survey to date for signs of extra-terrestrial communications (ETI). As part of his non-profit organization, Breakthrough Initiatives, this survey would rely on the latest in instrumentation and software to observe the 1,000,000 closest stars and 100 closest galaxies.

Using the Green Bank Radio Telescope in West Virginia, the Listen science team at UC Berkeley has been observing distant stars for over a year now. And less than a week ago, they observed 15 Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) coming from a dwarf galaxy located three billion light-years away. According to a study that described their findings, this was the first time that repeating FRBs have been seen coming from this source at these frequencies.

The team’s study, titled “FRB 121102: Detection at 4 – 8 GHz band with Breakthrough Listen backend at Green Bank“, was recently published in The Astronomers Telegraph. Led by Dr. Vishal Gajjar – a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Berkeley – the team conducted a detailed survey of FRB 121102. This repeating FRB source is located in a dwarf galaxy in Auriga constellation, some 3 billion light-years from Earth.





The NSF’s Arecibo Observatory, which is located in Puerto Rico, is the world largest radio telescope. Credit: NAIC
To clarify, FRBs are brief, bright pulses of radio waves that are periodically detected coming from distant galaxies. This strange astronomical phenomena was first detected in 2007 by Duncan Lorimer and David Narkovic using the Parkes Telescope in Australia. To honor their discovery, FRBs are sometimes referred to as “Lorimer Bursts”. Many FRB sources have been confirmed since then, some of which were found repeating.

The source known as FRB 121101 was discovered back on November 2nd, 2012, by astronomers using the Arecibo radio telescope. At the time, it was the first FRB to be discovered; and by 2015, it became the first FRB to be seen repeating. This effectively ruled out the possibility that repeating FRBs were caused by catastrophic events, which had previously been theorized.

And in 2016, FRB 121102 was the first FRB to have its location pinpointed to such a degree that its host galaxy could be identified. As such, the Listen science team at UC Berkeley was sure to add FRB 121102 to their list of targets. And in the early hours of Saturday, August 26th, Dr. Vishal Gajjar – a postdoctoral researcher at UC Berkeley – observed FRB 121102 using the Green Bank Radio Telescope (GBRT) in West Virginia.

Using the Digital Backend instrument on the GBRT, Dr. Gajjar and the Listen team observed FRB 121102 for five hours. From this, they accumulating 400 terabytes of data in the entire 4 to 8 GHz frequency band which they then analyzed for signs of short pulses over a broad range of frequencies. What they found was evidence of 15 new pulses coming from FRB 121102, which confirmed that it was in a newly active state.





The Green Bank Telescope, located in West Virginia. Credit: NRAO
In addition, their observations revealed that the brightest of these 15 emissions occurred at around 7 GHz. This was higher than any repeating FRBs seen to date, which indicated for the first time that they can occur at frequencies higher than previously thought. Last, but not least, the high-resolution data the Listen team collected is expected to yield valuable insights into FRBs for years to come.

This was made possible thanks to the Digital Backend instrument on the GBRT, which is able to record several GHz of bandwidth simultaneously and split the information into billions of individuals channels. This enables scientists to study the proprieties and the frequency spectrum of FRBs with greater precision, and should lead to new theories about the causes of these radio emissions.

So even if these particular signals should prove to not be an indication of extra-terrestrial intelligence, Listen is still pushing the boundaries of what is possible with radio astronomy. And given that Breakthrough Listen is less than two years into its proposed ten-year survey, we can expect many more sources to be observed and studied in the coming years. If there’s evidence of ETI to be found, we’re sure to find out about it sooner or later!

And be sure to check out this video of the Green Bank Telescope and the surveys it allows for, courtesy of Berkeley SETI:



Further Reading: Breakthrough Initiatives

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Hubble Spots First Indications of Water on TRAPPIST-1s Planets

Hubble Spots First Indications of Water on TRAPPIST-1s Planets:

In February of 2017, astronomers from the European Southern Observatory (ESO) announced the discovery of seven rocky planets around the nearby star of TRAPPIST-1. Not only was this the largest number of Earth-like planets discovered in a single star system to date, the news was also bolstered by the fact that three of these planets were found to orbit within the star’s habitable zone.

Since that time, multiple studies have been conducted to ascertain the likelihood that these planets are actually habitable. Thanks to an international team of scientists who used the Hubble Space Telescope to study the system’s planets, we now have the first clues as to whether or not water (a key ingredient to life as we know it) exists on any of TRAPPIST-1s rocky worlds.

The team’s study, titled “Temporal Evolution of the High-Energy Irradiation and Water Content of TRAPPIST-1 Exoplanets“, recently appeared on the Hubble site. Led by Swiss astronomer Vincent Bourrier from the Observatoire de l’Université de Genève, the team relied on Hubble’s Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) to study the amount of ultraviolet radiation each of the TRAPPIST-1 planets receives.





Artist concepts of the seven planets of TRAPPIST-1 with their orbital periods, distances from their star, radii and masses as compared to those of Earth. Credit: NASA/JPL
As Bourrier explained in a Hubble press release, this helped them to determine the water content of the system’s seven planets:

“Ultraviolet radiation is an important factor in the atmospheric evolution of planets. As in our own atmosphere, where ultraviolet sunlight breaks molecules apart, ultraviolet starlight can break water vapor in the atmospheres of exoplanets into hydrogen and oxygen.”
How ultraviolet radiation interacts with a planet’s atmosphere is important when it comes to assessing the potential habitability of a planet. Whereas lower-energy UV radiation causes photodissociation, a process where water molecules break down into oxygen and hydrogen, extreme ultraviolet rays (XUV radiation) and x-rays cause the upper atmosphere of a planet to heat up – which causes the hydrogen and oxygen to escape.

Since hydrogen is lighter than oxygen, it is more easily lost to space where its spectra can be observed. This is precisely what Bourrier and his team did. By monitoring the TRAPPIST-1 planets spectra for signs of hydrogen loss, the team was effectively able to gauge their water content. What they found was that the UV radiation emitted by TRAPPIST-1 suggests that its planets could have lost quite a lot of water during their history.

The losses were most severe for the innermost planets – TRAPPIST-1b and 1c – which receive the most UV radiation from their star. In fact, the team estimates that these planets could have lost more than 20 Earth-oceans worth of water in the course of the system’s history – which is estimated to be between 5.4 and 9.8 billion years old. In other words, these inner planets would be bone dry and most definitely sterile.





This illustration shows the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets as they might look as viewed from Earth using a fictional, incredibly powerful telescope. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
However, these same findings also suggest that the outer planets of the system have lost significantly less water over time, which could mean that they still possess abundant amounts on their surfaces. This includes the three planets that are within the star’s habitable zone – TRAPPIST-1e, f and g – which indicates that these planets could be habitable after all.

These findings are bolstered by the calculated water loss and geophysical water release rates, which also favor the idea that the more-massive and outermost planets have retained most of their water over time. These findings are very significant, in that they further demonstrate that atmospheric escape and evolution are closely linked on the planets of the TRAPPIST-1 system.

The findings are also encouraging, since previous studies that considered atmospheric loss in this system painted a rather grim picture. These include those that indicated that TRAPPIST-1 experiences too much flare, that even calm red dwarfs subject their planets to intense radiation over time, and that the distance between TRAPPIST-1 and its respective planets would mean that solar wind would be deposited directly onto their atmospheres.

In other words, these studies cast doubt on whether or not stars that orbit M-type (red dwarf) stars would be able to retain their atmospheres over time – even if they had an Earth-like atmosphere and magnetosphere. Like Mars, this research indicated that atmospheric stripping caused by solar wind would inevitably render their surfaces cold, desiccated, and lifeless.





Artist’s illustration showing the difference  TRAPPIST-1 in relation to our Sun. Credit: ESO
In short, this is one of the few pieces of good news we’ve received since the existence of seven planets in the TRAPPIST-1 system (and three potentially habitable ones) was first announced. It’s also a positive indication as far as the habitability of red dwarf star systems go. In recent years, many of those impressive exoplanet finds have taken place around red dwarf stars – i.e. Proxima b, LHS 1140b, Gliese 581g, Gliese 625b, and Gliese 682c.

Given the number of rocky planets that have been detected orbiting this type of star – and the fact that they are the most common in in the Universe (accounting for 70% of stars in the Milky Way alone) – knowing that they could support habitable planets is certainly welcome! But of course, Bourrier and his colleagues emphasize that the study is not conclusive, and further research is needed to determine if any of the TRAPPIST-1 planets are actually watery.

As Bourieer indicated, this will most likely involve next-generation telescopes:

“While our results suggest that the outer planets are the best candidates to search for water with the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope, they also highlight the need for theoretical studies and complementary observations at all wavelengths to determine the nature of the TRAPPIST-1 planets and their potential habitability.”
Rocky planets around the most common type of star, the potential to retain water, and 1oo billion potential planets in the Milky Way Galaxy alone. One thing is for sure: the James Webb Space Telescope is going to have its hands full once it is deployed in October of 2018!

And be sure to check out this animation of the TRAPPIST-1 system as well, courtesy of L. Calçada and the ESO:



Further Reading: Hubble Space Telescope, HST (2)

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The Crux Constellation

The Crux Constellation:

Welcome to another edition of Constellation Friday! Today, in honor of the late and great Tammy Plotner, we take a look at the “Southern Cross” – the Crux constellation. Enjoy!

In the 2nd century CE, Greek-Egyptian astronomer Claudius Ptolemaeus (aka. Ptolemy) compiled a list of all the then-known 48 constellations. This treatise, known as the Almagest, would be used by medieval European and Islamic scholars for over a thousand years to come, effectively becoming astrological and astronomical canon until the early Modern Age.

One of these constellations is known as Crux, a small constellation located in the southern skies. Despite its size, it is one of the most well-known constellations in the southern hemisphere due to its distinctive cross-shape. Today, it has gone on to become one of the 88 modern constellations currently recognized by the International Astronomical Union (IAU).

Name and Meaning:

For the people of the Southern Hemisphere, the Crux constellation has a great deal of cultural significance. The Incas knew the constellation as Chakana (Quechua for “the stair”), and a stone image of the stars was found in Machu Picchu, Peru. To the Maori, the constellation was known as Te Punga, or “the anchor”, due to the important role it played in maritime navigation.





The “Emu in the Sky”, an important constellation recognized by the Aborigines of Australia. Credit: RSAA/ANU
To the Aborigines of Australia, the cross and the Coalsack Nebula together represented the head of the Emu in the Sky. This mythical bird is associated with several Aborigine creation myths and is one of the most important constellations in their astronomical traditions. Because of this significance, the Southern Cross is represented on the flags of Australia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand Brazil, and Brazil.

The first recorded instance of Crux being named is believed to have occurred in 1455, when Venetian navigator Alvise Cadamosto made note of an asterism in the southern skies that he called carr dell’ostro (“southern chariot”). However, historians generally credit Portugese astronomer Joao Faras with the discovery, which occurred in 1500 when he spotted it from Brazil and named it “Las Guardas” (“the guards”).

By the late 16th century, Crux began to be depicted as a separate constellation on celestial globes and maps. In these and subsequent maps, the name Crux was used (Latin for “Cross”), referring to the constellation’s distinct shape.

History of Observation:

Crux was originally considered to be part of Centaurus, but as the precession of the equinoxes gradually lowered these stars below the European horizon, they were lost sight of, and so was the memory of these stars. At one time, around 1000 BCE, the stars of Crux were visible to the northern hemisphere, but by 400 CE they had slipped below the horizon for most populated areas.





The constellation Crux as it can be seen by the naked eye. Credit: Till Credner/AlltheSky.com
Even though it was originally plotted on Ptolemy’s Almagest, it first appeared as “Crux” on the charts of Petrus Plancius and Jodocus Hondius in 1598 and 1600 – both navigators. It is known that Amerigo Vespucci mapped the stars of Crux on his expedition to South America in 1501, and with good reason!

Two of the stars of Crux (Alpha and Gamma, Acrux and Gacrux respectively) are commonly used to mark due south. Following the line defined by the two stars for approximately 4.5 times the distance between them leads to a point close to the Southern Celestial Pole. A definite point needed for navigation! In 1920, Crux was included among the 88 modern constellations recognized by the IAU.

Notable Objects:

Of the major stars in Crux, Alpha Crucis (Acrux) is the brightest, and the 12th brightest star in the night sky. It is located approximately 320 light years away and is a multiple star system composed of Alpha-1 Crucis (a B class subgiant) and Alpha-2 Crucis (a B class dwarf). Both stars are very hot and their respective luminosities are 25,000 and 16,000 times that of the Sun.

Beta Crucis (Becrux, or Mimosa) is the second brightest star of the Southern Cross and the 20th brightest star in the night sky. It is approximately 350 light years distant, is classified as a Beta Cephei variable, and is a spectroscopic binary composed of two stars that are about 8 AU apart and orbit each other every five years. The name Mimosa refers to its color (blue-hued).



Gamma Crucis (Gacrux) is a red giant that is approximately 88 light years distant from Earth. It is the third brightest star in the Crux constellation and the 26th brightest star in the sky. Located about 400 light years distant from Earth, this binary star is composed of a M4 red dwarf star and a A3 white dwarf star.

Crux is also associated with several Deep Sky Objects, the most notable of which is the Coalsack Nebula. This object is easily seen as a dark patch in the southern region of the Milky Way (hence the name) and crosses into the neighboring constellations of Centaurus and Musca. It is located about 600 light years from Earth and is between 30 and 35 light years in radius. In Aboriginal astronomy, the nebula represents the head of the Emu.

Then there’s the Kappa Crucis Cluster (aka. the “Jewel Box” or “Herschel’s Jewel Box”), an open star cluster that is located approximately 6,440 light years from Earth. It contains roughly 100 stars and is one of the youngest clusters ever discovered (only 14 million years old). To the naked eye, the cluster appears like a star near Beta Crucis.

Finding Crux:

The constellation itself consists of four bright, main stars and 19 stars which have Bayer/Flamsteed designations. It is bordered by the constellations of Centaurus and Musca. At present, Crux is visible at latitudes between +20° and -90°. While it is fairly circumpolar for the southern hemisphere, it is best seen a culmination during the month of May.





The location of the Crux constellation. Credit: IAU
Now, let’s take out binoculars and examine its stars, started with Alpha Crucis, the “a” shape on our map. Its proper name is Acrux and it is the twelfth brightest star in the night sky. If you switch your binoculars out for a telescope, you’ll find that 321 light year distant Acrux is also a binary star, with components separated by about 4 arc seconds and around one half stellar magnitude difference in brightness.

The brighter of the two, A1 is itself a spectroscopic binary star – with a companion that orbits no further away than our own Earth, yet is around 14 times larger than our own Sun! Needless to say, there’s a very good chance this star may one day go supernova. While you’re there, take a look an addition 90 arc seconds away for a third star. While it may just be an optical companion to the Acrux system, it does share the same proper motion!

Back to binoculars an on to Beta Crucis – the “B” shape on the map. Mimosa is located about 353 light years away from our solar system and it is also a spectroscopic binary star. This magnificent blue/white giant star is tied at number 19 as one of the brightest stars in the sky, and if we could put it side by side with our Sun it would be 3000 times brighter. Mimosa is also a multiply-periodic Beta-Cephi type star, too, fluxing by about 1/10 of a magnitude in as little as hours. What’s going on? Inside Beta Crucis the iron content is only about half that of Sol and it’s nearing the end of its hydrogen-fusing stage. When the iron core develops? Watch out! It’s supernova time….

Now hang on to your binoculars and head north for Gamma Crucis, the “Y” shape on the map. Gacrux, is a red giant star approximately 88 light-years away from Earth. Did you notice its optical companion about 2 arc minutes away at an angle of 128 degrees from the main star? While the two look close together in the sky, the secondary star is actually 400 light years away! Gacrux shows its beautiful orange coloring to prove it has evolved off of the main sequence to become a red giant star, and it may even be evolving past the helium-burning stage.





The Coalsack Nebula and Kappa Crucis Cluster. Credit: A. Fujii
Move on now to Delta Crucis – the figure “8” on our map. Decrux is a red giant star located about 360 light years away from our vantage point. Delta Crucis is also Beta Cephei variable and changes its brightness just a tiny bit over a period of about an hour and 20 minutes. Another cool factoid about Delta Crucis is that it’s a fast rotator – spinning at a speed of at least 194 kilometers per second at the equator and making a full rotation in about 32 hours.

This massive star also produces a massive stellar wind, shooting off 1000 times more material than our own Sun every second of every day! Or try R Crucis… It’s also a Beta-Cephi type variable star, but it changes by nearly a full stellar magnitude in just a little over five days!

Keep your binoculars handy and head back to Beta and sweep south a degree and a half for the Kappa Crucis star cluster. This beautiful galactic cluster of stars commonly known as the Jewel Box (NGC 4755). After you see its glittering collection of multi-colored stars, you’ll understand how it got its name! It is one of the youngest clusters, perhaps only a few million years old.

Kappa Crucis is also right on the edge of a dark void in the sky called the “Coal Sack”. While you’re looking around, you’ll notice that there seem to be very few stars in this area. That’s because they are being blocked by a dark nebula! The Coal Sack is a large, dark dust cloud about 500 light years away and it’s blocking out the light from stars which lie beyond it. The few stars you do see are in front of the cloud and much nearer to the Earth.





The Jewel Box – the Kappa Crucis Cluster. Credit: ESO/NASA/ESA/Digitized Sky Survey 2/Jesús Maíz Apellániz (Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, Spain)
Now it’s telescope time. Head to Alpha Crucis and slightly less than 2 degrees east for NGC4609. Also on the edge of the Coalsack, this large, fairly condensed open cluster contains about 40 members and they are well spread across the sky. The pattern somewhat resembles the constellation of Orion (in the imagination, of course!). Mark you observing notes for Caldwell 98. Next stop? Back to Delta and less than 3 degrees south/southwest for NGC4103, another open cluster on the edge of night. With a little bit of imagination, this grouping of stars could appear to look like a celestial water tower!

We have written many interesting articles about the constellation here at Universe Today. Here is What Are The Constellations?What Is The Zodiac?, and Zodiac Signs And Their Dates.

Be sure to check out The Messier Catalog while you’re at it!

For more information, check out the IAUs list of Constellations, and the Students for the Exploration and Development of Space page on Canes Venatici and Constellation Families.

Sources:

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Ultraviolet Light Could Point the Way To Life Throughout the Universe

Ultraviolet Light Could Point the Way To Life Throughout the Universe:

Ultraviolet light is what you might call a controversial type of radiation. On the one hand, overexposure can lead to sunburn, an increased risk of skin cancer, and damage to a person’s eyesight and immune system. On the other hand, it also has some tremendous health benefits, which includes promoting stress relief and stimulating the body’s natural production of vitamin D, seratonin, and melanin.

And according to a new study from a team from Harvard University and the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA), ultraviolet radiation may even have played a critical role in the emergence of life here on Earth. As such, determining how much UV radiation is produced by other types of stars could be one of the keys to finding evidence of life any planets that orbit them.

The study, titled “The Surface UV Environment on Planets Orbiting M Dwarfs: Implications for Prebiotic Chemistry and the Need for Experimental Follow-up“, recently appeared in The Astrophysical Journal. Led by Sukrit Ranjan, a visiting postdoctoral researcher at the CfA, the team focused on M-type (red dwarf) stars to determine if this class of star produces enough UV radiation to kick-start the biological processes necessary for life to emerge.





Artist’s impression of the surface of the planet Proxima b orbiting the red dwarf star Proxima Centauri. The double star Alpha Centauri AB is visible to the upper right of Proxima itself. Credit: ESO
Recent studies have indicated that UV radiation may be necessary for the formation of ribonucleic acid (RNA), which is necessary for all forms of life as we know it. And given the rate at which rocky planets have been discovered around red dwarf stars of late (exampled include Proxima b, LHS 1140b, and the seven planets of the TRAPPIST-1 system), how much UV radiation red dwarfs give off could be central to determining exoplanet habitability.

As Dr. Ranjan explained in a CfA press release:

“It would be like having a pile of wood and kindling and wanting to light a fire, but not having a match. Our research shows that the right amount of UV light might be one of the matches that gets life as we know it to ignite.”
For the sake of their study, the team created radiative transfer models of red dwarf stars. They then sought to determine if the UV environment on prebiotic Earth-analog planets which orbited them would be sufficient to stimulate the photoprocesses that would lead to the formation of RNA. From this, they calculated that planets orbiting M-dwarf stars would have access to 100–1000 times less bioactive UV radiation than a young Earth.

As a result, the chemistry that depends on UV light to turn chemical elements and prebiotic conditions into biological organisms would likely shut down. Alternately, the team estimated that even if this chemistry was able to proceed under a diminished level of UV radiation, it would operate at a much slower rate than it did on Earth billions of years ago.





Artist’s impression of the planet orbiting a red dwarf star. Credit: ESO/M. Kornmesser
As Robin Wordsworth – an assistant professor at the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Science and a co-author on the study – explained, this is not necessarily bad news as far as questions of habitability go. “It may be a matter of finding the sweet spot,” he said. “There needs to be enough ultraviolet light to trigger the formation of life, but not so much that it erodes and removes the planet’s atmosphere.”

Previous studies have shown that even calm red dwarfs experience dramatic flares that periodically bombard their planets with bursts UV energy. While this was considered to be something hazardous, which could strip orbiting planets of their atmospheres and irradiate life, it is possible that such flares could compensate for the lower levels of UV being steadily produced by the star.

This news also comes on the heels of a study that indicated how the outer planets of the TRAPPIST-1 system (including the three located within its habitable zone) might still have plenty of water of their surfaces. Here too, the key was UV radiation, where the team responsible for the study monitored the TRAPPIST-1 planets for signs of hydrogen loss from their atmospheres (a sign of photodissociation).

This research also calls to mind a recent study led by Professor Avi Loeb, the Chair of the astronomy department Harvard University, Director of the Institute for Theory and Computation, and also a member of the CfA. Titled, “Relative Likelihood for Life as a Function of Cosmic Time“, Loeb and his team concluded that red dwarf stars are the most likely to give rise to life because of their low mass and extreme longevity.





Artist’s impression of a sunset seen from the surface of an Earth-like exoplanet. Credit: ESO/L. Calçada
Compared to higher-mass stars that have shorter life spans, red dwarf stars are likely to remain in their main sequence for as long as six to twelve trillion years. Hence, red dwarf stars would certainly be around long enough to accommodate even a vastly decelerated rate of organic evolution. In this respect, this latest study might even be considered a possible resolution for the Fermi Paradox – Where are all the aliens? They’re still evolving!

But as Dimitar Sasselov – the Phillips Professor of Astronomy at Harvard, the Director of the Origins of Life Initiative and a co-author on the paper – indicated, there are still many unanswered questions:

“We still have a lot of work to do in the laboratory and elsewhere to determine how factors, including UV, play into the question of life. Also, we need to determine whether life can form at much lower UV levels than we experience here on Earth.”
As always, scientists are forced to work with a limited frame of reference when it comes to assessing the habitability of other planets. To our knowledge, life exists on only on planet (i.e. Earth), which naturally influences our understanding of where and under what conditions life can thrive. And despite ongoing research, the question of how life emerged on Earth is still something of a mystery.

If life should be found on a planet orbiting a red dwarf, or in extreme environments we thought were uninhabitable, it would suggest that life can emerge and evolve in conditions that are very different from those of Earth. In the coming years, next-generation missions like the James Webb Space Telescope are the Giant Magellan Telescope are expected to reveal more about distant stars and their systems of planets.

The payoff of this research is likely to include new insights into where life can emerge and the conditions under which it can thrive.

Further Reading: CfA, The Astrophysical Journal

The post Ultraviolet Light Could Point the Way To Life Throughout the Universe appeared first on Universe Today.

Another Monster Black Hole Found in the Milky Way

Another Monster Black Hole Found in the Milky Way:

At the center of the Milky Way Galaxy resides the Supermassive Black Hole (SMBH) known as Sagittarius A*. This tremendous black hole measures an estimated 44 million km in diameter, and has the mass of over 4 million Suns. For decades, astronomers have understood that most larger galaxies have an SMBH at their core, and that these range from hundreds of thousands to billions of Solar Masses.

However, new research performed by a team of researchers from Keio University, Japan, has made a startling find. According to their study, the team found evidence of a mid-sized black hole in a gas cluster near the center of the Milky Way Galaxy. This unexpected find could offer clues as to how SMBHs form, which is something that astronomers have been puzzling over for some time.

The study, titled “Millimetre-wave Emission from an Intermediate-mass Black Hole Candidate in the Milky Way“, recently appeared in the journal Nature Astronomy. Led by Tomoharu Oka, a researcher from the Department of Physics and the School of Fundamental Science and Technology at Keio University, the team studied CO–0.40–0.22, a high-velocity compact gas cloud near the center of our galaxy.





This artist’s concept shows a galaxy with a supermassive black hole at its core. The black hole is shooting out jets of radio waves.Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
This compact dust cloud, which has been a source of fascination to astronomers for years, measures over 1000 AU in diameter and is located about 200 light-years from the center of our galaxy. The reason for this interest has to do with the fact that gases in this cloud – which include hydrogen cyanide and carbon monoxide – move at vastly different speeds, which is something unusual for a cloud of interstellar gases.

In the hopes of better understanding this strange behavior, the team originally observed CO–0.40–0.22 using the 45-meter radio telescope at the Nobeyama Radio Observatory in Japan. This began in January of 2016, when the team noticed that the cloud had an elliptical shape that consisted of two components. These included a compact but low density component with varying velocities, and a dense component (10 light years long) with little variation.

After conducting their initial observations, the team then followed up with observations from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) in Chile. These confirmed the structure of the cloud and the variations in speed that seemed to accord with density. In addition, they observed the presence of radio waves (similar to those generated by Sagittarius A*) next to the dense region. As they state in their study:

“Recently, we discovered a peculiar molecular cloud, CO–0.40–0.22, with an extremely broad velocity width, near the center of our Milky Way galaxy. Based on the careful analysis of gas kinematics, we concluded that a compact object with a mass of about 105 [Solar Masses] is lurking in this cloud.”




Change image showing the area around Sgr A*, where low, medium, and high-energy X-rays are red, green, and blue, respectively. The inset box shows X-ray flares from the region close to Sgr A*. NASA: NASA/SAO/CXC
The team also ran a series of computer models to account for these strange behaviors, which indicated that the most likely cause was a black hole. Given its mass – 100,000 Solar Masses, or roughly 500 times smaller than that of Sagittarius A* – this meant that the black hole was intermediate in size. If confirmed, this discovery will constitute the second-largest black hole to be discovered within the Milky Way.

This represents something of a first for astronomers, since the vast majority of black holes discovered to date have been either small or massive. Studies that have sought to locate Intermediate Black Holes (IMBHs), on the other hand, have found very little evidence of them. Moreover, these findings could account for how SMBHs form at the center of larger galaxies.

In the past, astronomers have conjectured that SMBHs are formed by the merger of smaller black holes, which implied the existence of intermediate ones. As such, the discovery of an IMBH would constitute the first piece of evidence for this hypothesis. As Brooke Simmons, a professor at the University of California in San Diego, explained in an interview with The Guardian:

“We know that smaller black holes form when some stars die, which makes them fairly common. We think some of those black holes are the seeds from which the much larger supermassive black holes grow to at least a million times more massive. That growth should happen in part by mergers with other black holes and in part by accretion of material from the part of the galaxy that surrounds the black hole.

“Astrophysicists have been collecting observational evidence for both stellar mass black holes and supermassive black holes for decades, but even though we think the largest ones grow from the smallest ones, we’ve never really had clear evidence for a black hole with a mass in between those extremes.”




Artist’s impression of two merging black holes, which has been theorized to be a source of gravitational waves. Credit: Bohn, Throwe, Hébert, Henriksson, Bunandar, Taylor, Scheel/SXS
Further studies will be needed to confirm the presence of an IMBH at the center of CO–0.40–0.22. Assuming they succeed, we can expect that astrophyiscists will be monitoring it for some time to determine how it formed, and what it’s ultimate fate will be. For instance, it is possible that it is slowly drifting towards Sagittarius A* and will eventually merge with it, thus creating an even more massive SMBH at the center of our galaxy!

Assuming human beings are around to detect that merger, its fair to say that it won’t go unnoticed. The gravitational waves alone are sure to be impressive!

Further Reading: Nature Astronomy

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Researchers Tackle Question of How the Universe Became Filled With Light

Researchers Tackle Question of How the Universe Became Filled With Light:

In accordance with the Big Bang model of cosmology, shortly after the Universe came into being there was a period known as the “Dark Ages”. This occurred between 380,000 and 150 million years after the Big Bang, where most of the photons in the Universe were interacting with electrons and protons. As a result, the radiation of this period is undetectable by our current instruments – hence the name.

Astrophysicists and cosmologists have therefore been pondering how the Universe could go from being in this dark, cloudy state to one where it was filled with light. According to a new study by a team of researchers from the University of Iowa and the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, it may be that black holes violently ejected matter from the early Universe, thus allowing light to escape.

Their study, titled “Resolving the X-ray emission from the Lyman continuum emitting galaxy Tol 1247-232“, recently appeared in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. Led by Phillip Kaaret, a professor of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Iowa – and supported by an award from the Chandra X-ray Observatory – the research team arrived at this conclusion by observing a nearby galaxy from which ultraviolet light is escaping.





Milestones in the history of the Universe, from the Big Bang to the present day. Credit: NAOJ/NOAO
This galaxy, known as Tol 1247-232, is a small (and possibly elliptical) galaxy located 652 million light-years away, in the direction of the southern Hydra constellation. This galaxy is one of just nine in the local Universe (and one of only three galaxies close to the Milky Way) that has been shown to emit Lyman continuum photons – a type of radiation in the ultraviolet band.

Back in May of 2016, the team spotted a single X-ray source coming from a star-forming region in this galaxy, using the Chandra X-ray observatory. Based on their observations, they determined that it was not caused by the formation of a new star. For one, new stars do not experience sudden changes in brightness, as this x-ray source did. In addition, the radiation emitted by new stars does not come in the form of a point-like source.

Instead, they determined that what they were seeing had to be the result of a very small object, which left only one likely explanation: a black hole. As Philip Kaaret, a professor in the UI Department of Physics and Astronomy and the lead author on the study, explained:

“The observations show the presence of very bright X-ray sources that are likely accreting black holes. It’s possible the black hole is creating winds that help the ionizing radiation from the stars escape. Thus, black holes may have helped make the universe transparent.”


Where is the Nearest Black Hole


Artist concept of matter swirling around a black hole. Credit: NASA/Dana Berry/SkyWorks Digital
However, this also raised the question of how a black hole could be emitting matter. This is something that astrophysicists have puzzled over for quite some time. Whereas all black holes have tendency to consume all that is in their path, a small number of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) have been found to have high-speed jets of charged particles streaming from their cores.

These SMBHs are what power Active Galactic Nuclei, which are compact, bright regions that has been observed at the centers of particularly massive galaxies. At present, no one is certain how these SMBHs manage to fire off jets of hot matter. But it has been theorized that they could be caused by the accelerated rotational energy of the black holes themselves.

In keeping with this, the team considered the possibility that accreting X-ray sources could explain the escape of matter from a black hole. In other words, as a black hole’s intense gravity pulls matter inward, the black hole responds by spinning faster. As the hole’s gravitational pull increases, the speed creates energy, which inevitably causes charged particles to be pushed out. As Kaaret explained:

“As matter falls into a black hole, it starts to spin and the rapid rotation pushes some fraction of the matter out. They’re producing these strong winds that could be opening an escape route for ultraviolet light. That could be what happened with the early galaxies.”




Depiction of the tidal disruption event in F01004-2237. The release of gravitational energy as the debris of the star is accreted by the black hole leads to a flare in the optical light of the galaxy. Credit and copyright: Mark Garlick
Taking this a step further, the team hypothesized that this could be what was responsible for light escaping the “Dark Ages”. Much like the jets of hot material being emitted by SMBHs today, similarly massive black holes in the early Universe could have sped up due to the accretion of matter, spewing out light from the cloudiness and allowing for the Universe to become a clear, bright place.

In the future, the UI team plans to study Tol 1247-232 in more detail and locate other nearby galaxies that are also emitting ultraviolet light. This will corroborate their theory that black holes could be responsible for the observed point source of high-energy X-rays. Combined with studies of the earliest periods of the Universe, it could also validate the theory that the “Dark Ages” ended thanks to the presence of black holes.

Further Reading: Iowa Now, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

The post Researchers Tackle Question of How the Universe Became Filled With Light appeared first on Universe Today.

NASA, NOAA Satellites Track Hurricane Irma’s Path

NASA, NOAA Satellites Track Hurricane Irma’s Path:

Record-setting Hurricane Irma barreled over the Caribbean islands of St. Martin, St. Barthelemy and Anguilla early Wednesday, destroying buildings with its sustained winds of 185 mph (297 kph), with rains and storm surges causing major flooding. The US National Hurricane Center listed the Category 5 Irma as the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded north of the Caribbean and east of the Gulf of Mexico. The storm continues to roar on a path toward the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and possibly Florida, or along the southeast coast of the US.

This animation of NOAA’s GOES East satellite imagery from Sept. 3 at 8:15 a.m. EDT (1215 UTC) to Sept. 6 ending at 8:15 a.m. EDT (1215 UTC) shows Category 5 Hurricane Irma as it moved west and track over St. Martin by 8 a.m. EDT on Sept. 6:



Different models have Irma traveling on slightly different paths and officials from all the areas that might possibly be hit are telling people to prepare and follow evacuation orders. National Hurricane Center scientist Eric Blake said via twitter that some models had the storm going one way, and some another. But he cautioned everyone in a potential path should take precautions. “Model trends can be quite misleading- could just change right back. It is all probabilistic at this point. It could still miss [one particular area]. But chances of an extreme event is rising.”

Never seen a #hurricane this strong last so long in the Atlantic basin. #Irma is more like an unwelcome western Pacific supertyphoon ?? pic.twitter.com/55tFsbYWz1
— Eric Blake ? (@EricBlake12) September 6, 2017
Saint-Martin and Anguilla appear to have taken a direct hit by cat 5 Hurricane #Irma. #GOES16 pic.twitter.com/1CN1JL0GEC
— NASA SPoRT (@NASA_SPoRT) September 6, 2017


The fleet of Earth-observing satellites are providing incredible views of this monster storm, and even astronauts on board the International Space Station are capturing views:

The International Space Station’s external cameras captured a dramatic view of Hurricane Irma as it moved across the Atlantic Ocean Sept. 5. pic.twitter.com/mc61pt2G8O
— Intl. Space Station (@Space_Station) September 5, 2017
#GOES16 captured this geocolor image of Hurricane #Irma approaching Anguilla at about 7:00 am (EDT). Latest info @ https://t.co/cSGOfrM0lG pic.twitter.com/R24P0Q1EPm
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) September 6, 2017
GOES-16 view of #HurricaneIrma at 30-second intervals covering 5-hour period ending at 352 AM CDT (9/6), including its passage over Barbuda. pic.twitter.com/WL6l6klPKw
— NWS Twin Cities (@NWSTwinCities) September 6, 2017
The eye of a category 5 hurricane. #Irma #GOES16 pic.twitter.com/eATVZspJZx
— NASA SPoRT (@NASA_SPoRT) September 5, 2017
While satellite views provide the most comprehensive view of Irma’s potential track, there’s also a more ‘hands-on’ approach to getting data on hurricanes. NOAA hurricane hunter Nick Underwood posted this video while his plane flew into Hurricane Irma yesterday. The plane’s specialized instruments can take readings on the storm that forecasters can’t get anywhere else:

— Nick Underwood (@TheAstroNick) September 5, 2017
But Irma isn’t the only storm to keep an eye on. Tropical storms Katia and Jose are also on the horizon:

An overview of the active tropics: 24-hour animation of TS #Katia (left), Hurricane #Irma (center), and TS #Jose (right). #GOES16 pic.twitter.com/DiuhZP4f6y
— NASA SPoRT (@NASA_SPoRT) September 6, 2017
In the meantime, a launch is scheduled from Cape Canaveral on Thursday, September 7. SpaceX is hoping to launch the US Air Force’s X-37B reusable spaceplane, but current forecasts put only a 50% chance of weather suitable enough on Thursday, and only 40% on Friday. We’ll keep you posted.

For the latest satellite views, the Twitter accounts above are posting regular updates.

On Sept. 4 at 17:24 UTC, NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite captured this view of Hurricane Irma as a Category 4 hurricane approaching the Leeward Islands.
Credits: NOAA/NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team.
The post NASA, NOAA Satellites Track Hurricane Irma’s Path appeared first on Universe Today.

Big Solar Storm Coming Our Way, Now’s Your Chance to See Auroras

Big Solar Storm Coming Our Way, Now’s Your Chance to See Auroras:

An X9.3 class solar flare flashes in the middle of the Sun on Sept. 6, 2017. Credit:NASA/GSFC/SDO
An X9.3 class solar flare flashes in the middle of the Sun on Sept. 6, 2017. Credit:NASA/GSFC/SDO


If you’re still riding that high from seeing the recent total solar eclipse and you want to keep the party going, now’s your chance to see another of the night sky’s wonders: an aurora. That said, a totally full Moon is going to try and wreck the party.


NASA announced that two powerful flares were just emitted on the surface of the Sun, casting coronal mass ejections in our direction. Over the course of the next couple of days, this should generate aurora activity in the sky outside the regular viewing areas. In other words, if you normally don’t see the Northern Lights where you live, you might want to spend a few hours outside tonight and tomorrow. Look up, you might see something.

This morning, the Sun released the most powerful solar flare recorded since 2008. Here's what our satellite saw: https://t.co/mk2540AdtV pic.twitter.com/7hVektV682
— NASA Sun & Space (@NASASun) September 6, 2017
The first flare, an X2.2 event, peaked on September 6 at 5:10 am EDT and the second X9.3 flare went off at 8:02 am. Both of which came from the sunspot group AR 2673. If you’ve still got those eclipse glasses, take a look at the Sun, and you should be able to see the sunspot group right now. There are two groups of sunspots close to one another, AR 2673 and AR 2674. This follows up the X4 flare emitted on September 4th.

Solar astronomers measure flares using a similar scale to other natural events, with a series of designations. The smallest are A-class, then B, C, M and finally X. Each level within the rating accounts for double the strength; it’s exponential. So, and X2 is twice as powerful as an X1, etc. The most powerful flare ever recorded was an X28 in 2003, so today’s flare is still comparatively weak to that monster.

Here's the flare in visible and ultraviolet. Credit: NASA/GSFC/SDO
Here’s the flare in visible and ultraviolet. Credit: NASA/GSFC/SDO


But, measuring in at X9.3, today’s flare is the strongest in almost a decade. The last one this strong was back in 2008. And NOAA is predicting that this flare could cause radio blackouts across the sun-facing side of the Earth. If you’re out at sea and depending on your radio transmissions, don’t be surprised if you’re getting a lot of static today.


How do you stand the best chance of seeing auroras? My favorite tool comes from NOAA’s 3-day aurora forecast. It shows you a 3-day predictive simulation for what the solar storm should do as it buffets the Earth’s magnetosphere. You can run the simulation backwards and forwards, and you’re looking glowing green areas to come across your part of the world.

But even if it doesn’t look like you’re going to see the auroras, I still think it’s worth trying. Even if you don’t get an aurora directly overhead, you can sometimes see it on the horizon, and it can be surprisingly beautiful.

Here’s my timelapse video of auroras on the horizon.


The big problem, of course, is the Moon. Tonight is also a full Moon, which means that awful glowing ball is going to rise just after sunset and blaze across the sky all night. You’re going to have a rough time seeing all but the brightest auroras. But I still think it’s worth trying.

If you want to maximize your chances of seeing an aurora, check out the Space Weather site on a regular basis. There are also services that’ll send you a text message when there’s a powerful aurora going on in your area (just Google “aurora alert text messages”. And of course, there are handy apps that’ll make your phone beep boop when there are auroras overhead. I use an app called Aurora Alert.

We’ve had three powerful flares in the last couple of days, which means that the Sun is feeling a little frisky. There could be more, and they could happen after the full Moon is over, and we’ve got some alone time with the dark sky. So stay on top of the current space weather, spend time outside, and keep your eyes on the sky. You might get a shot at seeing an aurora.

And once you’ve seen one, you’ll be hooked.

Source: NASA News Release

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Now We Know When Stars Will Be Passing Through the Oort Cloud

Now We Know When Stars Will Be Passing Through the Oort Cloud:

To our Solar System, “close-encounters” with other stars happen regularly – the last occurring some 70,000 years ago and the next likely to take place 240,000 to 470,000 years from now. While this might sound like a “few and far between” kind of thing, it is quite regular in cosmological terms. Understanding when these encounters will happen is also important since they are known to cause disturbances in the Oort Cloud, sending comets towards Earth.

Thanks to a new study by Coryn Bailer-Jones, a researcher from the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, astronomers now have refined estimates on when the next close-encounters will be happening. After consulting data from the ESA’s Gaia spacecraft, he concluded that over the course of the next 5 million years, that the Solar System can expect 16 close encounters, and one particularly close one!

For the sake of the study – which recently appeared in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics under the title “The Completeness-Corrected Rate of Stellar Encounters with the Sun From the First Gaia Data Release” – Dr. Bailer Jones used Gaia data to track the movements of more than 300,000 stars in our galaxy to see if they would ever pass close enough to the Solar System to cause a disturbance.





Artist’s impression of the ESA’s Gaia spacecraft. Credit: ESA/ATG medialab; background: ESO/S. Brunier
As noted, these types of disturbances have happened many times throughout the history of the Solar System. In order to dislodge icy objects from their orbit in the Oort Cloud – which extends out to about 15 trillion km (100,000 AU) from our Sun – and send them hurling into the inner Solar System, it is estimated that a star would need to pass within 60 trillion km (37 trillion mi; 400,000 AU) of our Sun.

While these close encounters pose no real risk to our Solar System, they have been known to increase comet activity. As Dr. Bailer-Jones explained to Universe Today via email:

“Their potential influence is to shake up the Oort cloud of comets surrounding our Sun, which could result in some being pushed into the inner solar system where is chance they could impact with the Earth. But the long-term probability of one such comet hitting the Earth is probably lower than the probability the Earth is hit by a near-Earth asteroid. So they don’t pose much more danger.”
One of the goals of the Gaia mission, which launched back in 2013, was to collect precise data on stellar positions and motions over the course of its five-year mission. After 14 months in space, the first catalogue was released, which contained information on more than a billion stars. This catalogue also contained the distances and motions across the sky of over two million stars.

By combining this new data with existing information, Dr. Bailer-Jones was able to calculate the motions of some 300,000 stars relative to the Sun over a five million year period. As he explained:

“I traced the orbits of stars observed by Gaia (in the so-called TGAS catalogue) backwards and forwards in time, to see when and how close they would come to the Sun. I then computed the so-called ‘completeness function’ of TGAS to find out what fraction of encounters would have been missed by the survey: TGAS doesn’t see fainter stars (and the very brightest stars are also omitted at present, for technical reasons), but using a simple model of the Galaxy I can estimate how many stars it is missing. Combining this with the actual number of encounters found, I could estimate the total rate of stellar encounters (i.e. including the ones not actually seen). This is necessarily a rather rough estimate, as it involves a number of assumptions, not least the model for what is not seen.”
From this, he was able to come up with a general estimate of the rate of stellar encounters over the past 5 million years, and for the next 5 million. He determined that the overall rate is about 550 stars per million years coming within 150 trillion km, and about 20 coming closer than 30 trillion km. This works out to about one potential close encounter every 50,000 years or so.

Dr. Bailor-Jones also determined that of the 300,000 stars he observed, 97 of them would pass within 150 trillion km (93 trillion mi; 1 million AU) of our Solar System, while 16 would come within 60 trillion km. While this would be close enough to disturb the Oort Cloud, only one star would get particularly close. That star is Gliese 710, a K-type yellow dwarf located about 63 light years from Earth which is about half the size of our Sun.





Stars speeding through the Galaxy. Credit: ESA
According to Dr. Bailer-Jones’ study, this star will pass by our Solar System in 1.3 million years, and at a distance of just 2.3 trillion km (1.4 trillion mi; 16 ,000AU). This will place it well within the Oort Cloud, and will likely turn many icy planetesimals into long-period comets that could head towards Earth. What’s more, Gliese 710 has a relatively slow velocity compared to other stars in our galaxy.

Whereas the average relative velocity of stars is estimated to be around 100.000 km/h (62,000 mph) at their closest approach, Gliese 710 will will have a speed of 50,000 km/h (31,000 mph). As a result, the star will have plenty of time to exert its gravitational influence on the Oort Cloud, which could potentially send many, many comets towards Earth and the inner Solar System.

Over the past few decades, this star has been well-documented by astronomers, and they were already pretty certain that it would experience a close encounter with our Solar System in the future. However, previous calculations indicated that it would pass within 3.1 to 13.6 trillion km (1.9 to 8.45 trillion mi; 20,722 to 90,910 AU) from our star system – and with a 90% certainty. Thanks to this most recent study, these estimates have been refined to 1.5–3.2 trillion km, with 2.3 trillion km being the most likely.

Again, while it might sound like these passes are on too large of a timescale to be of concern, in terms of the astronomical history, its a regular occurrence. And while not every close encounter is guaranteed to send comets hurling our way, understanding when and how these encounters have happened is intrinsic to understanding the history and evolution of our Solar System.

Understanding when a close encounters might happen next is also vital. Assuming we are still around when another  takes place, knowing when it is likely to happen could allow us to prepare for the worst – i.e. if a comets is set on a collision course with Earth! Failing that, humanity could use this information to prepare a scientific mission to study the comets that are sent our way.

The second release of Gaia data is scheduled for next April, and will contain information on an estimated 1 billion stars. That’s 20 times as many stars as the first catalogue, and about 1% the total number of stars within the Milky Way Galaxy. The second catalog will also include information on much more distant stars, will which allow for reconstructions of up to 25 million years into the past and future.

As Dr. Bailer-Jones indicated, the release of Gaia data has helped astronomers considerably. “[I]t greatly improves on what we had before, in both number of stars and precision,” he said. “But this is really just a taster of what will come in the second data release in April 2018, when we will provide parallaxes and proper motions for around one billion stars (500 times as many as in the first data release).”

With every new release, estimates on the movements of the galaxy’s stars (and the potential for close encounters) will be refined further. It will also help us to chart when major comet activity took place within the Solar System, and how this might have played a role in the evolution of the planets and life itself.

Further Reading: ESA

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